NFL Week 4 betting guide: Picks, props and why the Bears can keep it close - ESPN

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. A former NFL safety, Bowen predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

With that, let's dive into Week 4.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Chicago Bears to cover +1.5 (-125) at Las Vegas Raiders

We are seeing development from quarterback Caleb Williams under coach Ben Johnson. More timing and rhythm as a thrower, a growing sense of calm in the pocket. That's coaching. And Williams can distribute the ball to multiple targets, with Rome Odunze (16 receptions, 227 yards, 4 TDs) emerging as his No.1. Yes, the Bears are still banged up in the secondary, but the Raiders' inability to create run game production with Ashton Jeanty (3.1 YPC) limits their offensive tempo. Let's take the Bears, who are now getting points after opening as favorites. — Bowen

Green Bay Packers team total OVER 27.5 (-110)

Jordan Love and the Packers were shut down by the Cleveland Browns defense in Week 3, but that unit is one of the league's best. In Week 4, however, Green Bay gets a much more positive