NFL Draft Day Predictor 2024: Forecasting Round 1, QB picks - ESPN

Let's predict the 2024 NFL draft, probabilistically. That's the job of ESPN's Draft Day Predictor, our publicly available tool that uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to forecast pick probabilities for prospects in the upcoming draft. In other words, we can get a look at the range of selection outcomes for the best players and the chance they will be available at specific slots.

With two days remaining before the Bears presumably select USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick, let's break down some key questions about the draft using the Draft Day Predictor. We'll look at who will go No. 2 overall, which wide receivers could be available for the Bills, whether Oregon QB Bo Nix or Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. could fall deep into the second round and more. Plus, we'll look at who users are selecting using our NFL mock draft simulator in the form of a fan mock draft.

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Jayden Daniels, though there's still a fair bit of uncertainty. The model gives the LSU quarterback a 49% chance to be the selection at No. 2, with North Carolina's Drake Maye at 21% and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy at 15%, respectively. The remaining possibilities consist of Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. — probabilities that are almost certainly inflated. Any model like this requires uncertainty, though there is little actual doubt that Williams will go No. 1 and the Commanders will take a QB at No. 2.

The model believes Daniels has the edge — and he is probably an odds-on favorite if we mentally redistribute the Williams and Harrison probabilities — but it's no slam dunk.

The top three receivers — Harrison, LSU's Malik Nabers and