NFL awards watch: Early look at the markets for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year - ESPN

If you've followed my college football futures coverage, you already know I love digging through award races, playoff paths, national title contenders and where perception doesn't always match reality.

I'll be bringing that same approach to the NFL throughout the offseason and regular season.

From the Super Bowl to MVP, Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year and more, this column will track the storylines, movement and betting angles worth paying attention to as the season takes shape.

Not every market will generate a wager, but every market will be on the radar. Here's an early look for now.

It's simply too expensive, but it makes sense for him to be the favorite. Arizona took him at No. 3 overall, hoping for a boost with a player that is explosive and will certainly get touches in order to build an offense around the run game after moving on from Kyler Murray. But we're still talking about a team that has won four games or less in three of its last four seasons.

The defense was bottom-tier basically everywhere. They'll likely be playing from behind a lot again, and now you'll be asking a rookie running back with an unsettled quarterback situation behind a weak offensive line to carry both production and narrative for this award? That's a lot.

For +300 to cash, you'd be paying for everything to go right immediately. That's not how I like betting futures. Futures can be really good, and still not win this award. Rookie running back props and futures on bad teams are dangerous, because volume sounds great until you realize the team is trailing by 17 in the third quarter. The talent is real, and the durability could even be real. The number to win this award isn't.

The market believes two things: