Next Gen Stats provide a new way to find betting value in Super Bowl LX - ESPN

Welcome to the next generation of Super Bowl props — literally. When the NFL first installed chips in every player's shoulder pads nearly a decade ago, I doubt the league imagined wagers being placed on the player-tracking data being collected… but here we are.

And, in my view, it represents a great spot to find betting value. Because, who the heck knows how often a player reaches 19 mph as a ball carrier? We can be that someone.

So, just for the Super Bowl, I've spent the past week researching these props and building models to try to forecast these Next Gen Stats-based categories. Let's dive in and hopefully find some winners.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

This is my favorite Super Bowl bet, period. When I saw my model's take — that Diggs had an 88% chance to go under this number — I assumed I'd made a mistake along the way. So, as a quick baseline check, I went back to see how many times Diggs had gone over that line this season. The answer? One time. He hit 18.7 mph during Week 16. That's it!

Ball carrier max speed doesn't have that much to do with how fast a player would run on a track. Instead, it's about the context in which a player is carrying the ball. A straight-line sprint to the end zone? That's when players hit 21 or even 22 mph. But Diggs is not that type of player. He's not typically streaking downfield on a go route, catching a pass past the last defender and running toward the end zone.

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