When the Indiana Pacers host Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), it will be the first Finals game in Indianapolis in a quarter century. Yet this Pacers' run is still ahead of schedule — if it was even scheduled at all.
Despite reaching the Eastern Conference finals last spring, Indiana was a heavy underdog to get back as the No. 4 seed, let alone advance further. The Pacers needed to knock off a 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 2, then win a second series over the No. 3 seeded New York Knicks without the benefit of home-court advantage.
Using data from SportsOddsHistory.com, ESPN Research found that just two Finals teams in the past four decades had worse title odds to start the season than Indiana's plus-5,000 (50-1) at ESPN BET Sportsbook: the 2020 Miami Heat (plus-7,500) and 2002 New Jersey Nets (plus-6,000), with the 2022 Boston Celtics also at plus-5,000.
The history of other surprise finalists tells us their success doesn't tend to carry over into championships. But between the runs and the comebacks they've pulled off along the way, the Pacers have made history accomplishing the improbable.
Let's take a closer look at how Indiana compares to other unexpected Finals teams, what it says about this Pacers squad and if we should've seen this coming.
The skepticism about Indiana entering this season might have stemmed from what has happened to recent teams like the Pacers, who have come largely out of nowhere to reach the conference finals. Last year's run as the No. 6 seed benefited from injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo as well as multiple Knicks.
Since the first round went to best-of-seven series in 2003, five teams have made the conference finals with pre-playoff odds to win the title of
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