Intelligent Hockey: Best Bets for Saturday’s NHL action

Slump or short-term lapse?

That is the question bettors should be asking themselves when assessing certain teams heading into this weekend.

I’m wagering on the latter, and I’ll tell you why.

Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers Saturday, February 26 – 12:30 PM ET

The arrival of Edmonton interim coach Jay Woodcroft has been a breath of fresh air. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are breathtaking talents, and seeing Edmonton play such uninspired hockey until recently, frankly, bummed me out.

Woodcroft’s arrival has paid clear dividends from the get-go. The Oilers have tightened the screws in the neutral zone. Better gaps mean the Oilers force turnovers and produce counterattack goals. On breakouts, the Oilers’ forwards drift toward the neutral zone, pushing back the defence and forcing the Edmonton defencemen to make a longer stretch pass or try to carry it out on their own.

Under Woodcroft, the Oilers started to play 11 forwards and seven defencemen, with the defensive group seeing ice time divvied up more equitably. The Oilers won their first five games with Woodcroft at the helm, and their 5-on-5 numbers soared.

But no matter how magical, honeymoons never last, do they? Reality has set in, as Edmonton lost its last two games by multi-goal margins, and has allowed 12 total goals. “The Oilers are playing more passive on their forecheck. Cool,” said Tampa Bay in Wednesday’s game. “We’ll push our players up ice and then snake our way through with delayed entries. And your forwards are going to hang out above the hash marks on breakouts? That’s fine. We’ll jump that first pass from the retrieving defenceman to the outlet.” 

Better gaps don’t scotch the Oilers’ lingering goaltending issues. The line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins,