Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday's NHL slate

As we wade deeper into the postseason and the number of remaining games decreases, it is time to dive headfirst into prop bets. With fickle team performances and murky injury reports, moneyline bets can be difficult to project. However, looking at individuals and their attendant prop bets can be lucrative, especially because a player’s value in the marketplace can be skewed. With the NHL staying on brand by giving us a wacky weekend schedule, I present one game bet and two player prop bets. 

Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues Saturday, May 21 – 8:00 PM ET  The difference between the two numbers is staggering. In Game 1, the Colorado Avalanche finished with a 5-on-5 expected goals for of 3.73, a number that elicits the fireworks emoji. In Game 2, their expected goals for fell down an elevator shaft to a measly 0.95. The same trend is true for other metrics. The Avalanche generated 16 high-danger chances in Game 1. In Game 2, they manufactured three. Did the Blues figure the Avalanche out?

Game 1 was a disaster for St. Louis, and the fact that the contest went into overtime seems a borderline miracle. In Game 1, the Avs were allowed to let their creativity run wild, incorporating set plays all over the ice to great effect. The Blues conceded wide swathes of ice to the Avalanche, who used the stretch pass to quickly advance the puck up the ice. 

In Game 1, the Avs’ defencemen were critical to their success. The Colorado rearguards carried the puck in on the entry, spearheading a layered rush attack; on the cycle, the Avs’ defencemen created confusion by interchanging with the forwards and sliding down low. The speed and offensive skills of Colorado’s blueliners stretched St. Louis out, opening up the slot.

The playoffs