Huddersfield Town win at Hull City holds more significance than merely bucking results blip

Huddersfield Town have been defying expected goals advocates all season, and the reasons are pretty simple. With the best keeper in the Championship in goal and one of the best finishers in the league up front, they have been able to turn a lot of tight games the data suggest should have been draws into wins.

They have, on whole, won and lost the games they ought to have done. But 17 of Town’s Championship 40 games this season have had an expected goal difference (xGD) of less than +0.50 or more than -0.50, suggesting a relatively even share of chances for each side; but they have in fact won nine, drawn six and lost just one of those games, with their home defeat to Nottingham Forest in September the lone defeat.

The problem for Town going into the international break was their xG trend wasn’t great. Their losses to Millwall and Bournemouth were two of the most one-sided games Town have been on the receiving end of this season, with only the home loss to Fulham and away defeat to Bournemouth even getting even close. Before heading to Hull, Town had recorded a positive xGD in just two of their past nine games.

Before Friday’s kick off, though, the underlying statistics were much less bothersome for Town than the psychological boost of getting back to winning ways. A win by any means possible was much more important than a performance from Carlos Corberan’s side at the MKM Stadium; and while they needed a Harry Toffolo tap-in from a set piece to get the job done, get it done they did.

With those three vital points in the bag, we can now return to looking a bit more closely at the performance itself. After all, Town are going to need to play better to get results from any of their next three games: a tricky run of Luton