How Week 1's results will impact the College Football Playoff, according to the numbers

Notre Dame's tough season opener against Ohio State on Saturday is filled with upside.

There is only one other scheduled contest all year that could raise a team's chance to reach the College Football Playoff with a win more than the Fighting Irish's trip to Columbus — only behind Michigan's own bout with the Buckeyes — according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. And there is no scheduled game in which a team faces higher total playoff leverage — the difference between its chance to reach the playoff with a win and a loss — than Notre Dame's Week 1 contest.

A win over No. 2 Ohio State would bump the No. 5 Fighting Irish from a 30% chance to reach the playoff to a 56% chance, while a loss would drop them to just 25% — resulting in 31 percentage points of total leverage.

And that's why the game is almost all upside. In giving Notre Dame a 30% chance to reach the playoff in Marcus Freeman's first season running the show in South Bend, the Allstate Playoff Predictor is already baking in a likely loss to the Buckeyes. FPI estimates Ohio State has an 84% chance to win, so if Notre Dame can win that would shake up the landscape while a Buckeye victory would only slightly reinforce the status quo.

Let's back up a second. For the unfamiliar, the Allstate Playoff Predictor is our statistical model that — well, you guessed it — forecasts the likelihood of each team reaching the College Football Playoff. It's an endeavor that requires two distinct phases:

• Projecting the remainder of the season based on the strength and schedules of each team. This part is handled by ESPN's Football Power Index.

• Forecasting the selection committee's decision in each simulation, based on the past behavior of the committee.

Put it together and