How to bet Tennessee-Michigan on Sunday; will Duke end UConn's run? - ESPN

The 2026 men's basketball tournament round of eight continues Sunday with two monster matchups.

First, 1-seed Michigan (-7.5, O/U 146.5) takes on 6-seed Tennessee at 2:15 p.m., and the 1-seed Duke (-5.5, O/U 133.5) and 2-seed UConn tangle at 5:05 p.m.

Here are my selections for these games and a pick for the new ESPN Men's Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication time and subject to change.

I think there is an overcorrection here in the total that doesn't add up. Duke has played several top-15 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the totals have been way higher than this one. Against Kansas the total was 148.5. Against Florida it was 156.5. Against Michigan State it was 141.5. Against Michigan it was 150.5. Duke faced Virginia twice — once in the regular season and once in the ACC Tournament — and the totals were 143.5 and 140.5 respectively. Lastly, against St. John's it was 140.5. We are now at least seven points lower than every single one of those totals against a UConn defense that profiles similarly to all the other opponents. That math isn't mathing for me.

I'll cut the game in half because it's a game script that feels like if it ain't going over early, it ain't going over late. Duke has largely been better in the second halves of this tournament, but Dan Hurley is a master at controlling the game late. UConn's offense isn't at the level of Duke, so I don't really like its ability to come back here and feel like it needs to score early in this game to keep Duke on its heels. We get a low number here that we can take advantage of, even with the short turnaround for both teams.

For Michigan to lose this game, two things must happen. It must shoot less