How many medals will Canada win at the Olympics?

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Eight days out from the official opening of the Winter Olympics in northern Italy, and just six days from the start of preliminary competition, you can feel the anticipation starting to build here in Canada. High on the list of things people are wondering: How many medals will Canada win? And who will win them?

To help answer these questions, we once again brought in our friends from Shoreview Sports Analytics to crunch the numbers. Much like they did for our Olympic curling and hockey previews, except on a much larger scale, the guys at Shoreview built a statistical model to predict the outcome of every single event at the Olympics.

Without getting too deep into the math weeds, this process involved determining the skill level of every athlete or team based on their performances over the past few years, and then simulating each event 10,000 times to project where everyone is most likely to finish.

As with any kind of statistical modelling, this is a mix of art and science. How much, for example, do you adjust for injuries? How far back should you go for past results? Is it better to put more weight on consistency? Or reward the hot hand? These are all tricky questions.

A lot of work went into calibrating all these factors and more. But it's important to remember that even the best models don't have all the answers. There will be surprises — both good and bad. But I think these predictions give us a pretty good idea of what to expect from Canada's athletes.

Alright, enough with the preamble. Here are Shoreview's projected medal standings. They're sorted by gold,