Grand National tips and preview

5.15pm Randox Grand National

The first official running of the Grand National at Aintree may have been won by a horse by the name of Lottery, but the irony that he was sent of a well-backed 5-1 favourite for what was to become the world's most famous steeplechase has obviously been lost in the mists of time.

Finding the winner of any competitive 40-runner handicap will stump the majority of gamblers most of the time, but the randomness element is overemphasised.

In the last 20 runnings of the race, four favourites or joint-favourites have scored, namely Hedgehunter (2005, 7-1F), Comply Or Die (2008, 7-1JF), Don't Push It (2010, 10-1JF) and Tiger Roll (2019, 4-1F). Seven of the other 16 winners have been sent off at 16-1 or shorter, which speaks to a fairly informative market when you factor in and contextualise the prices of the runners in fields of this size.

The National may have changed since Lottery's success in 1839, but historical trends relating to official ratings, weight carried, preparation for the race, previous big-field form, stamina, breeding and jumping prowess have helped to identify winners and rule out false pretenders.

However, the latter of those traits isn't the boon it once was, with major alterations made to the National fences a decade ago resulting in obstacles that are far easier to negotiate.

Where once hitting a fence brought runners to a juddering halt, these days the jumps' plastic cores often allow runners to plough to the other side, much to the chagrin of many purists, if not the broader public.

This is the people's race and welfare issues and the optics surrounding them matter.

Completing the course is still an onerous task and those fence changes have arguably made the race an even greater