Funtime Lions to Saints surge: which current losing teams will make the NFL playoffs?

A lot can change over the course of an 18-week NFL season. This time last year, there were 10 teams with one win or fewer. Three went on to make the postseason: the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. This year, there are nine teams below the .500 mark entering Week 5. At least one is still likely to make the playoffs – let’s grade who has the strongest shot.

The Patriots are bottom of an AFC East headlined by two of the best teams in the conference, Mac Jones has a high ankle sprain and Bill Belichick is deciding whether to start Brian Hoyer at quarterback or roll with the Bailey Zappe Experience. Not great, Bob.

Add to that: Belichick’s defense is not as strong this season as a year ago. Like a student cramming for finals after skipping class the entire semester, the Pats cobbled together a brand-new blueprint for their matchup with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. How sustainable is that one-off model the rest of the way? Based on the early season evidence, not very. The Pats have a below-average defense with a couple of high-level playmakers who can cover up some structural flaws. That’s not a recipe for success when your offense is being marshaled by a rookie – or Hoyer.

Chance of making playoffs: 3/10

Who cares about boring things like the team record when you’re playing in a fireworks show every Sunday? The Lions have scored 140 (!) points this season, an average of 35 per game, and the league’s high-water mark. They also so happen to have conceded 141 points, an average of just over 35 per game, also the league’s high-water mark. No other team in the league has conceded more than 115 points through four weeks.

The nerdy metrics paint an even grimmer picture. Detroit field the only