Five things the Boston Celtics must do to beat the Golden State Warriors

Oddsmakers — which also means the general betting public — are backing Golden State in the Finals. Our partner, PointsBet, has installed the Warriors as -150 favorites (the Celtics are +125).

The computer models love the Celtics. For example, 538’s model (which has not been high on the Warriors all season) gives Boston an 80% chance of winning banner No. 18.

Personally, I see this as a tight series, going at least six games. I am picking the Warriors in seven, but it’s not a pick I make with tremendous confidence — the Celtics can win this series.

However, if the Celtics are going to raise another banner to the rafter, they need these five things to happen.

On March 16, the Boston Celtics went into the Chase Center and shut down the Warriors, holding them under a point per possession (96.2 offensive rating for Golden State). One has to be careful reading too much into a regular season game — this is the one where Marcus Smart dove for a ball and rolled up Stephen Curry‘s foot, meaning the Warriors’ leading scorer played fewer than 14 minutes — but in the minutes that mattered, the Celtics defense was a problem for the Warriors.

Historically, switching defenses give Golden State the most trouble. Boston is the switch happiest defense in the NBA this season, but they do it because they have five quality defenders on the court — they are not hiding anyone. Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart will likely start on Curry, but forcing a switch to get Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, or Robert Williams III presents its own challenges.

Al Horford IS HERE TO WIN