Fantasy football - Dalvin Cook, Courtland Sutton among players who will score more TDs in 2022

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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

From the 2010 to '20 seasons, there were 133 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 133 cases, 96 (or 72%) scored more touchdowns the next season.

Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 (or 80%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 15 who scored either zero or one touchdown, 12 (or 80%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot receivers Jason Avant (2010-11 and 2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the three exceptions.

Last season, 24 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables under three scores including Kyle Pitts, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers, Mike Gesicki and Darren Waller.

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We see similar results if we run this test on running backs in the same time span. There are 49 instances in which a back failed to score seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing at least 200 again the next season. Of those 49 cases, 39 (or 80%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first season, but