Euroviews. To Trump-proof climate, the Global South must take the lead

This year’s COP29 in Baku was the most precarious climate summit yet. It was far more fractious and far less ambitious than earlier COPs.

Halfway through the meeting, many climate leaders wrote a public letter claiming COP was unfit for purpose and called for an urgent overhaul. Many senior negotiators expressed frustration with what some termed the worst COP in a decade.

The meeting was haunted by the spectre of a second Trump presidency and derided for being hosted in a fossil fuel autocracy for the third time in a row.

It was acknowledged that the incoming Trump administration next year will cast a long shadow with the inevitable rolling back of environmental regulations and withdrawal from international agreements.

The $300 billion finance plan — that COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev managed to gavel through to help developing nations cope with the soaring costs of global warming over the next decade — is extremely unpopular with developing nations.

While it may seem significant, this amount falls drastically short of the $1.3 trillion estimated to be needed by 2035 to tackle climate change effectively.

Moreover, as Fadhel Kaboub shows, when adjusted for 5% annual inflation, the $300 billion goal is equivalent to just $175 billion in 2024 dollars. It's also important to note that this goal is based on low-quality finance, focusing on capital mobilization rather than provision, meaning there is no real commitment or accountability.

Despite this, it’s not all doom and gloom. There can be no sugarcoating the challenges to the climate that lie ahead, though not all of them emanate from Washington. The collapse of Germany’s governing coalition leaves many energy reforms and climate initiatives up in the air. 

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