Euroviews. Is Ireland inching closer to being united as one?

Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government has been restored, with pro-United Ireland parties now holding both the office of First Minister and leader of the Opposition.

Unionism — the political force that advocates for Northern Ireland to remain a part of the United Kingdom — is in steady decline; How close are we to a United Ireland?

Looking at the present political landscape, in every electoral office the vote share for political unionism has decreased, while nationalist party Sinn Féin has surged to become the largest party in both local and national government. 

By contrast, Northern Ireland was established with an inbuilt protestant majority with unionism as the dominant political power for the best part of a century. 

Former Northern Ireland Prime Minister James Craig once referred to Northern Ireland’s government as a “Protestant parliament for a Protestant people”.

The political change is a manifestation of wider shifts in demographics. In 2021, Catholics outnumbered Protestants in the census for the first time in history. 

That same census provided some interesting insights into identity with an 8% drop in British identity over the course of 10 years, down from 722,400 to 606,300, while Irish and Northern Irish identity increased.

This means that today, in terms of political, demographic, and national identity, Northern Ireland appears to be less British, and less unionist, than ever before.

How that plays out in polling is mixed; In 2022 Northern Ireland-based polling company LucidTalk showed 41% of respondents would vote for a United Ireland today, for those aged 18-24, that number increased to 57%. 

In 2023, polling by the Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research showed 47% would vote to remain in the