Euroviews. Europe cannot yet afford to celebrate post-al-Assad Syria

The sudden, and for most, unexpected collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime has left Syria, already teetering from almost 13 years of civil war, at yet another crossroads, with implications for Europe that cannot be ignored.

Many in Europe have chosen to focus on the defeat, which this moment has proven to be for al-Assad’s backers in the “axis of resistance” — Russia and Iran — highlighting a long-awaited opportunity for progress.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas described al-Assad’s downfall as "a positive and long-awaited development," while European Parliament President Roberta Metsola highlighted that "what happens in the next hours and days matters".

With such statements coming out of Brussels reflecting European optimism, reactions that are too focused on the immediate outcome risk overshadowing the significant dangers now confronting Syria, its neighbours and Europe.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the advance alongside additional Islamist factions, are currently moving to consolidate power, understanding that time is of the essence in establishing the facts on the ground that will define the rule of Syria for perhaps generations to come.

The spectre of yet another failed state in the region should, however, be top of everyone’s minds. Although HTS has actively sought to cautiously navigate away from its origins as an al-Qaeda affiliate, the faction under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has since shed his Islamist nom-de-guerre in favour of his birth name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, remains a proscribed terrorist group in much of the world, including Europe, although the UK government, in light of developments in Syria, announced a decision to reassess this status.

HTS’ and