Euroviews. Can Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region weather the loss of Russian gas?

What is Transnistria, the pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova, relying on? Not Russia's military, as some might think.

Russia has at most 2,000 troops on the east bank of Moldova’s Dniester River. These forces have been there for a long time — at least three decades.

In addition, there are almost 6,000 soldiers in the local army, made up of young people born in the region, according to estimates by the Moldovan government.

Therefore, the forces supporting Transnistrian separatism are a pale shadow of what the 14th Army once was. The military force that kept the Republic of Moldova in check during the years of the war on the Dniester left behind a lot of outdated weaponry and low morale.

So, what keeps the Transnistrian region alive? It is based on three main pillars.

Russian propaganda, money ... and gas.

The third and most important pillar collapsed this month. The end of a pre-invasion five-year deal between Ukraine and Russia cut the Kremlin's gas from flowing into Europe through Ukrainian territory, while Moscow refuses to send gas to the breakaway region.

This situation has analysts in Chisinau asking: "When will the other two pillars fall?". Not "if", but "when"?

And when might the Tiraspol regime collapse? Months, weeks? Nobody knows.

The Kremlin's propaganda does not keep people warm, and ruble transfers only top up the accounts of pensioners and civil servants. What are the others going to do without jobs, without heat, without light? Especially if they have children who are suffering.

If the situation drags on, discontent could grow among the population and even among civil servants — challenging the authoritarian regime in Tiraspol.

The deteriorating living conditions could easily drive people to migrate. While