Eliminator Challenge Week 1 - NFL picks, predictions, tips - ESPN

Week 1 has traditionally been one of the most difficult weeks in ESPN Eliminator Challenge, especially recently. Over the last two seasons, teams favored by at least four points in Week 1 are just 6-7-1, leading to many early eliminations.

Last season, the two chalky Week 1 picks both survived (Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders), while the next two most popular picks were upset. Two years ago, the chalkiest pick won (Ravens), but the three next-most popular choices either lost (Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans) or tied (Indianapolis Colts). Overall, the second-most popular choice in Week 1 Eliminator Challenge has lost in three of the last four seasons.

This season shapes up similarly to previous years with one obvious choice on paper. The Cincinnati Bengals are the only team favored by more than a touchdown at ESPN BET and have the best chance to win this week according to both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay's model. Not surprisingly, they are also the most popular pick, as 30% of entrants picking them as of Tuesday evening. They are also our top pick for Week 1, as we will ride the chalk.

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Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots)
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

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It's the chalky pick for a reason. While underdogs tend to overachieve in Week 1, the biggest favorites tend to take care of business. Teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 1 are 26-4 outright over the last 15 seasons (.867),