2024 NFL season sim: Predictions, surprises, playoff teams - ESPN

My usual job is to write about NFL football in terms of probabilities. But today is my annual departure from that, as we're focusing on our single simulation of the 2024 NFL season. Pure results, total certainty.

To form its projections of the season, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) simulates the full slate of games 20,000 times. But in this exercise, we picked out only one of those simulations to represent a single possible scenario for how things could unfold. After all, life is a single sim. And today, that's FPI simulation No. 515.

Here are the major storylines from that one simulation, including surprise playoff teams, draft order drama, tight division races and a Super Bowl champion. We applied a little creative license to the details, but the results are all straight from the numbers. Let's dive into simulation No. 515.

See FPI's full projections of the season

It turned out the Buffalo Bills needed a No. 1 receiver after all. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Buffalo took a more run-heavy approach in this season simulation, but it resulted in the offense taking a step back and quarterback Josh Allen having his worst statistical season since the early parts of his career. The defense couldn't make up the gap, either, resulting in a disastrous 7-10 playoff-less season for a team that was considered a Super Bowl contender entering the season.

The Atlanta Falcons' all-in (well, all-in-ish) bet on the 2024 season went south early, as they opened the season 2-4. Kirk Cousins struggled in his age-36 season while returning from an Achilles injury, and the offense stumbled hard. Atlanta managed a 6-11 record despite being in a weak NFC South. This season did have one bright spot for Atlanta, though, as it served as