Connelly's College Football Playoff quarterfinals preview - ESPN

Here's where we rely on bracket dynamics. When we get amazing upsets and Cinderella stories in one round of a tournament, order is usually restored with chalky outcomes in the next. And when we begin with extreme chalk, as we did in the first round of the College Football Playoff, we get some thrilling, tight, heavyweight matchups in the next round.

Or maybe we get the best of both worlds? The first-ever CFP quarterfinals start with another pair of potential underdog stories, with Boise State (against Penn State) and Arizona State (against Texas) making their playoff debuts. But we follow that with two games that feature evenly matched opponents: Ohio State and Oregon meet in a rematch of a one-point regular-season battle, then Georgia and Notre Dame square off for the fourth time. The first three meetings were decided by a total of 14 points, and this one has a 2-point spread.

The first round might have been blowout-heavy, but trust bracket dynamics. Here's everything you need to know about the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

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Playoff projections
Boise State-Penn State
Arizona State-Texas
Oregon-Ohio State
Georgia-Notre Dame
Biggest plays for each team

According to SP+, Ohio State and Oregon are the two best teams in college football. The winner of that quarterfinal might play the third-best remaining team, Texas. It's a top-heavy bracket, and it has produced a wide-open field. Of the eight quarterfinalists, six have between a 13% and 20% chance of winning the national title.

These odds were determined by simulating the bracket 10,000 times, but in case you're someone who enjoys reading the last page when starting a book, I plucked out one random simulation just for fun. Here's simulation No. 3,304,