College football playoff predictions: Arizona State, Miami in; Ole Miss, Colorado out

How unpredictable has the 2024 college football season been?

Kansas has one of those records that tells bold-faced lies to your face. We knew the Jayhawks were good. That's why they were ranked among the 25 best teams in the country heading into this season by both myself and the Associated Press. So, while KU became the first team ever with a losing record in the FBS to win three games in a row against top 25 programs, it shocked few that Lance Leipold's team accomplished this feat. It's been more shocking that this team only began to find its form after the halfway mark of the season. Kansas could just as easily have been a CFP-projected selection like Arizona State is now, even after a 3-9 2023 season.

But that's how unpredictable this year has been and how expectations for what a team can achieve remain volatile — even with the postseason just one week away. Colorado, a team that went 4-8 last year and lost to unranked Kansas last week, can still make the CFP. Indiana, a team that had won just nine games over the previous three years combined, is one win from securing its first 11-win season in program history. And, yes, the Hoosiers can make the CFP.

And now its rivalry week — the last week of a regular season that has seen all but one team suffer a loss. Unlikely upsets have been a common theme and 2024's most exciting trait. I wouldn't be surprised to find out my projections suffer from that volatility at least one more time.

With that said, here are my updated CFP projections:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 11-0

2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 10-1

3. SMU
Conference: ACC
Record: 10-1

4. Arizona State
Conference: Big 12
Record: 9-2

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 9-1

6. Notre Dame
Conference: Independent
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