College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble watch after Week 2 - ESPN

The College Football Playoff selection committee members will tell you they don't rank conferences — they rank teams — but the Big Ten and SEC are leading the way in nonconference wins that will impact the committee's rankings through Selection Day.

According to ESPN Research, the SEC enters Week 3 with a 27-3 nonconference record (8-2 against Power 4 opponents), while the Big Ten is 31-5 (5-3 against Power 4 opponents). The Big 12 is 24-8 but 5-6 against the Power 4, and the ACC is 22-10 but 3-9 against Power 4 teams.

Those results impact the following conference-by-conference playoff breakdown — listed in order of who is projected to have the most teams in the 12-team field.

Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each Power 4 league, and another identified as an enigma. We've also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week's top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee's ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn't always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group's tendencies plus what each team has done to date. Mississippi State, for example, just earned a big nonconference win against Arizona State, so although the Bulldogs probably aren't ready for the CFP yet, they're still listed under Work to do to account for the upward trajectory that win provides early.

Reminder: This will change