College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble watch after Week 3 - ESPN

Only three weeks into the season, Notre Dame and Clemson have dropped out of the playoff picture with two losses each. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame (0-2) now has a 6% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. Clemson (1-2) has a 4% chance.

That makes room for somebody else.

Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We've also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with «Would be in» status are featured in this week's top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee's ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with «Work to do» is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which would mean a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that «Would be out» is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn't always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group's tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

Spotlight: Texas. In the latest top 12 projection, the No. 12 Longhorns would be out of the playoff to make room for projected American champion South Florida. Let that sink in for a minute: The most hyped team in America this preseason is now projected to watch the playoff from home. ESPN Analytics gives Texas the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game (26%) behind Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. The Longhorns' season-opening road loss to Ohio State isn't