College Football Playoff 2024 - Week 5 bubble watch - ESPN

The biggest difference with the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff this season — aside from the bigger bracket — is the guaranteed inclusion of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Which means Michigan isn't out because it lost to Texas. And USC isn't out because it lost to Michigan. And LSU isn't out because it lost to USC.

«We're obviously very disappointed,» USC coach Lincoln Riley said after the loss in Ann Arbor, «but [we] know this season — there's a lot left in it.»

Which is why teams like Indiana and Illinois are in the mix — at least until they're not.

Below is a snapshot of what the College Football Playoff bracket might look like today — through four weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week, plus eight teams on the bubble and a look at how the Group of 5 race stacks up after Northern Illinois and Memphis both lost.

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Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5

First-round byes

Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.

No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns would earn the top seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Texas also being the committee's No. 1 team on Selection Day. Texas has one of the best wins in the country — against Michigan — and that became even more valuable when the Wolverines beat USC at home. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, nobody in the country has a higher chance to reach the playoff than Texas (93%), and the Longhorns also have the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (27.3%).

No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn