College football 2025 'ifs' list - how contenders come together - ESPN

Twenty-five years ago, Bob Stoops' second Oklahoma team headed into the 2000 season with lukewarm expectations. The Sooners' roster had some solid former blue-chippers, but among their best players were two former juco transfers (quarterback Josh Heupel and linebacker Torrance Marshall) and a small, lowly touted running back (Quentin Griffin). OU was operating its version of the newfangled Air Raid offense, and its secondary was going to be alarmingly young. So, too, was the defensive co-coordinator, a 29-year-old named Brent Venables. The Sooners were ranked 19th in the AP preseason poll as a courtesy, but they hadn't won more than seven games in a season since 1993.

They finished a lot higher than 19th. The Sooners won their first five games by an average score of 48-13, including a shocking 63-14 walloping of Mack Brown's Texas. They beat No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Nebraska back-to-back, survived another showdown with K-State in the Big 12 championship, then outlasted Florida State in an Orange Bowl battle of attrition to win their first national title in 15 years.

It was the last time we had a truly unexpected champion. According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national title winner over the past 24 seasons has begun the season with title odds longer than +5000. No matter the title format — a BCS championship, then a four-team College Football Playoff and then, starting in 2024, a 12-team CFP — the champ has come from a pool of about 14 to 18 favorites.

Fourteen teams are at +5000 or shorter this season, according to ESPN BET. (At +6000, Heupel's Tennessee and Venables' Oklahoma are among those narrowly missing the cut.) Below, those teams are sorted by the number of «ifs» that need to break their way to make them