Canada's best- and worst-case scenarios for Friday's FIFA World Cup draw

The Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., buzzed with activity and speculation on Thursday in advance of Friday’s all-important draw for the 2026 men’s World Cup. 

Next summer’s expanded tournament, to be played in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, will feature 48 teams, and their wildly different rankings, as well as the state of global politics, has made the assembly of the 12 opening groups feel like a delicate proposition.

Countries will be drawn from four pots, seeded by relative strength. As a co-host, Canada has a place in Pot 1 despite its being ranked 27th in the world, meaning that it won’t face top powers like Argentina, France, England, or Spain in the group stage.

The Canadian men, who failed to earn a point in their previous two World Cup appearances in 1986 and 2022, will still be pressed to advance to the knockout rounds. In a trial draw under the Kennedy Center’s bright lights on Thursday, Canada pulled South Korea from Pot 2, Paraguay from Pot 3, and the winner of a March playoff between Ukraine, Poland, Sweden, and Albania from Pot 4.

That would be a benign group given the possibilities. Each pot has its dangers and opportunities, and Canada’s fate will be significantly shaped by Friday’s drawing of actual lots. 

Every team in Pot 2 is seeded higher than Canada. The lowest seed is Australia, at 26th, which beat Canada 1-0 in a scrappy October friendly in Montreal. The top seed is Croatia, the 10th-best team in the world.

Croatia would be the worst-possible pick for Canada, not only because of their strength. In Qatar in 2022, the eventual semifinalists thumped Canada 4-1, after then-coach John Herdman infamously suggested his side “f--- Croatia.” The Croatians disagreed. A second meeting would have its