Betting TNF: Game plan favors Steelers running back props and the Under - ESPN

Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC North rivalry, as the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Steelers have won three straight and are now the odds-on favorite to win the division at -160. The 1-5 Baltimore Ravens have the second-best odds at +160, followed by the Bengals at +1600.

The Bengals have lost four straight, including last week against the Green Bay Packers in Joe Flacco's first start since being acquired in a trade.

Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado and Eric Moody offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet Thursday's game.

Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Under 44.5

Pamela Maldonado: Both teams play slow, both quarterbacks play safe, and both defenses force mistakes. Cincinnati under Joe Flacco averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and ran the ball just 16 times. Pittsburgh leads the league in sacks plus takeaways, the exact combo that kills tempo and shortens possessions.

Even if the Steelers find their usual 24 points, it's hard to see Cincinnati keeping pace with its short-passing offense. This sets up as a grind, not a shootout; think field-position game where every drive feels like work. The line moved from 43 to 44.5, but the rhythm still says under.

Under

Under

Under

Pat McAfee is very impressed by what he has seen from Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offense this season.

Jaylen Warren over 49.5 rushing yards (-120)

Matt Bowen: Warren is averaging 49.0 yards on the ground over his past three games, but I see that number climbing versus a Bengals defense allowing 135.7 rushing yards per game (28th in the league).