Beijing 2022 predictions: Guardian US writers on the victors at the Winter Olympics

Medal count winnerFour years ago, Norway edged Germany atop the table with a staggering 39 medals (including 14 golds), besting their previous high as the host country in 1994. This time it won’t be nearly as close. The familiar dominance in cross-country skiing, in addition to likely medals in alpine skiing, biathlon, curling, freestyle skiing, ski jumping, snowboarding and speed skating, should end in another record haul. No mean feat for a nation with a smaller population than greater Atlanta. BAG

The only question for Norway is whether they’ll match or beat their record of 39 medals from 2018. Gracenote’s final projection: 44. You can’t bet against a country in an event that doubles as a mode of transportation for its citizens, and yes, Norway will dominate in cross-country skiing and biathlon once again, but they’re also strong in the Alpine events and basically anything that involves snow. The resurgent ROC may slow the Norwegian procession, as may host China, which excels in winter sports with flips, twists and other forms of gymnastics. BDCovid will ...... be responsible for at least one completely out-of-nowhere gold medalist thanks to China’s strict ‘Zero Covid’ protocols – which include daily throat swabs for testing and enhanced ‘close contact’ tracing – meaning athletes will face minimum two-day isolation for a positive test and risk missing their competition even if they are asymptomatic. The early days inside the closed loop for athletes and other participants have gone smoothly enough, though an outbreak looms as the doomsday scenario. BAG

... be all but forgotten by day three. I said the same thing for the Summer Olympics, and when I get one of these predictions right, I have to stick with it. We may see