AFL round 23: what’s at stake in the final round of home-and-away games?

To bastardise F. Scott Fitzgerald, the sentimental person thinks things will last, the Carlton supporter has a desperate confidence that they won’t. Since coughing up a loss to Adelaide at the end of July, Carlton’s season has had the anxious inertia of a house succumbing to a landslide.

To be among the Carlton faithful last Saturday night was to see grown men cry – first tears of joy, before squirting a few out with genuine sadness. It was to remember that in Melbourne, football remains a vital part of life, albeit one where grief is often softened by the saying “there’s always next week”.

Not now. Now, there is only this week. And hoo boy, what a week – one where six of the nine games have finals implications.

For no less than eight teams (nine if you’re willing to entertain St Kilda blowing Sydney’s doors off by 100 points) it is a round of great significance – the double chance, or an elimination final; making the finals or missing them altogether. Win, and any of Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane could finish as high as second. Lose, and any could fall as low as sixth.

It is one of the wildest final round rides anyone can remember – one capable of tingeing thrill with nausea. As Harry Dean Stanton says in Paris, Texas: “I’m not afraid of heights. I’m afraid of fallin’.”

Two games in particular stand out.

The consequences are alike for Melbourne and Brisbane who open round 23 at the Gabba on Friday night. Win and the double chance is yours. Lose, and you might face Tom Lynch and a resurgent Richmond in an elimination final.

The reigning premiers have struggled to maintain momentum through the back half of the year, following each win with a loss since July. Prior to that, they smoked Brisbane by more than 10 goals at