A social time bomb? Most Russians fighting in Kursk are conscripts, experts say

Ukraine’s chief commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his forces had captured some 600 Russian soldiers since the start of their cross-border incursion into the Kursk region three weeks ago.

It is believed that most of these prisoners of war are conscripts — young and relatively inexperienced soldiers who probably thought they would not see any actual fighting in their mandatory year-long military service.

They would certainly not have expected to see combat on Russian territory. However, analysts believe they currently make up most of the defending force in the Kursk region.

“They are the ones being captured, they are the ones being encircled. And this has been a vulnerability for Putin in terms of his domestic perception,” said Karolina Hird, Russia deputy team lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank.

At the start of Moscow's war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin had promised that conscripted soldiers would not be used in the fighting.

But with reports of young conscripts dying or being dispatched to the front, anger is growing among families.

“As long as he continues to prove himself not super interested in protecting conscripts in Kursk and using them as the main defensive line, I anticipate that that will have social effects in the future,” said Hird.

Russia’s defence ministry said the 115 soldiers, released last week in the first prisoner swap since Ukraine crossed the border on 6 August, were captured in Kursk.

The Russian NGO “Get Lost” supports people trying to avoid conscription and escape the war.

It says that since the beginning of the Kursk incursion, hundreds from the border region have contacted them for help.

“This is why the counter-terrorist operation regime has been declared, or