2026 NFL free agency: Judging overreactions to deals, trades - ESPN

You know we love our overreactions. And there is absolutely no time of year that is better for overreactions than NFL free agency.

Your favorite team goes out there the first day of the negotiation period and spends big, adding players you know at positions where it needs help, and it's easy to let your offseason fan brain dream. The fact is, some of these moves might have a 2024 Saquon Barkley-level impact on the teams that make them… but most of them won't quite live up to lofty expectations. Some might flop completely. The fact that we don't know which ones are which is a huge part of the fun.

I picked out a few situations that came up during last week's frenzy and took a shot at predicting whether they'll live up to the hype. So please enjoy this special mid-March edition of judging overreactions — where we sort out which big takeaways are legitimate. And forget I said what I said in the second sentence when I say the same thing about the NFL draft six weeks from now.

Jump to:
McCarthy, Penix done as QB1s?
Steelers losing season?
Walker ranking RB1 in fantasy?
Brown, Crosby staying put?
Rams to the Super Bowl?

The Vikings signed Kyler Murray, and the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa, thrusting those veterans into ostensible competitions with the 10th and eighth overall picks from the 2024 draft, respectively. McCarthy is coming off a terrible and injury-plagued first NFL season after missing his entire rookie season due to a knee injury. He entered the offseason healthy, but after throwing 12 interceptions and taking 27 sacks in his 10 starts last season, he has given the Vikings reason to doubt whether he'll turn out to be the quarterback they thought he was when they moved up a spot to draft him.

And Penix opened the