2026 college football simulations: CFP, conference title odds - ESPN

I honestly hate making predictions. Sometimes I overthink and overanalyze them to death, sometimes I try to find alternative approaches, and sometimes I simply aim for glory. No matter what, I usually end up incorrect. I think of sports in terms of odds, not guarantees, and asking me to declare what will happen ends up poorly for everyone involved.

Odds, meanwhile, are useful but unsatisfying. I can tell you that my SP+ ratings think Ohio State is the preseason national title favorite, and that will sound pretty definitive until you see that the odds of a Buckeye title are about 1-in-7. Even a well-regarded projections system won't tell you anything particularly definitive in the preseason, and you will come away from an odds summary both well-informed and underwhelmed.

With the 2026 college football season kicking off in earnest Thursday, I will try to give you the best of both worlds. Below, you'll find the odds for the national title race and all conference title races, based on 1 million simulations using the preseason SP+ projections (and the inherent volatility that comes from such simulations).

But a million realities is a lot of realities — enough for every FBS team to reach the CFP at least once (even you, UMass) — so there's something for everyone. I'll share some of the individual simulations I plucked at random, just as I did before the rollout of the 12-team playoff a couple of years ago and as colleague Seth Walder likes to do on the pro side. I'll also share some utterly incredible realities that I sought out. Sound like a decent plan?

Let's start at the highest level. Here are the 20 teams that have the best chance of winning the national title, per SP+.

Highest national title odds, per SP+
1. Ohio State