College football Week 3 best bets: Plays to make on UNC, Alabama, Texas A&M and more - ESPN

It's Week 3 of the college football season, and my card could use a little less drama. A few wild swings have made variance a known presence, but there's plenty of football left. I'm keeping my side light this week while we get a clearer read on these teams.

One quick note: I call most of the plays I write about predictions. I'll start incorporating the term best bet on higher-conviction plays. For now, I've got an underdog capable of winning outright, plus a first-quarter total.

Here's what Mark Zinno and I like for Week 3. May variance be in our favor.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

I started thinking, «Can UNC keep it close?» and ended up with, «Has Clemson done anything to justify laying this number?» I acknowledge that East Tennessee State helped the Tar Heels' metrics and LSU damaged Clemson's.

The strongest matchup is UNC's pass rush against Clemson's offensive structure. UNC is top-15 in pressures and sacks, while the Tigers are struggling in passing, the run game and blocking, leaving no obvious counter.

If Clemson can't establish the run, it will repeatedly place an unsettled quarterback situation into predictable passing downs against UNC's best unit. That's worrisome with an offense that's had trouble with ball protection, while converting just three of 27 attempts on third downs. Clemson QB Tait Reynolds has been functional from a clean pocket. Under pressure, he completed one pass for 1 yard.

North Carolina's red zone defense reinforces the scoring concern, allowing only a single red zone touchdown in five trips.

Now, I'm not ready to call UNC a complete team just yet. But at least offensively, QB Billy Edwards Jr. has protected the ball, produced 9.9 yards per attempt and shown he can attack