2024 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections, chances - ESPN

We're through Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and while the postseason is still months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.

Which teams are already in good shape at this point? Which ones still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.

Last update: Sept. 10 at 9:45 a.m. ET

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AFC | NFC

After a close win over the Ravens on the opening night of the NFL season, the Chiefs currently have the league's highest percentage chance to make the playoffs at 90%. Baltimore, despite the win, has the best chance to make the playoffs among 0-1 teams at 61% (ninth-highest overall and fifth-highest in the conference).

But what happened to the Bengals? They entered the season with the fifth-best chance to make the postseason at 66%. After their Week 1 loss to the Patriots, they now rank 14th (and eighth in the AFC) at 46%. Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati team have some work to do.

New England entered the season with the NFL's lowest odds to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI (6%). Now? The Pats are up to 16% — 27th overall and 13th in the AFC.

After their win against the Jets on Monday night, the 49ers now have a 85% chance to make the playoffs — which is tops in the NFC. Detroit rose from 70% to 78% with a Sunday night win over the Rams, and the Eagles sit at 82% after beating the Packers.

The NFC South could be a division to watch. The Falcons came into Week 1