2024 CFP quarterfinal picks, predictions: Penn State to win, cover against Boise State

My favorite wager of the four quarterfinal games is Penn State to win and cover against Boise State. 

The Broncos had an amazing season and earned a tie for the first round of the postseason. They got a first-round bye, but that does not mean they are significantly better than Indiana or SMU — two teams who were not competitive over 60 minutes against their opponents.

I see the same result for Boise State.

Boise State has a single loss this season to the No. 1 ranked team. It lost by three points in Eugene to the Oregon Ducks back in the middle of September. 

I would caution using that result to preview this game. It was nearly four months ago and teams, coaches and players change. 

For example, after two weeks of the NFL season, the New Orleans Saints were unstoppable, and their offensive coordinator was the next Sean McVay. And we all know how that situation has unfolded.

Therefore, it’s foolish to use that game to predict the outcome of this one, so I will not do that. It is, however, fair to mention the Broncos' conference schedule and how that relates to both the Indiana and SMU results.

According to SP+, the Broncos played two games against teams ranked 38th in SP+ team efficiency. That was UNLV, who they beat by five in Vegas and then by two touchdowns in Boise to end the season. The rest of their conference opponents all ranked between 95 and 120. 

Just a dreadful schedule. 

The same strength-of-schedule argument was used to preview Indiana and SMU against Notre Dame and Penn State, respectively. Boise State will play a caliber of team that it has not seen all season. Penn State’s athleticism, size, power and strength will be a huge test.

The Broncos all-world running back Ashton Jeanty might be the best overall