2024 CFP odds: Back Under in Penn State-Notre Dame, Irish to win outright

We're down to the final four teams of the first College Football Playoff that featured 12 teams.

While most of the games so far haven't been that thrilling, I've got faith that we're going to get our money's worth out of these last two rounds.

And speaking of money, I've got a few wagers that I think will put some cash in our pockets. Check out my best bets for the semifinal round of the Playoff.

(All times ET)

THURSDAY, JAN. 9

No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

In the first round of the playoffs, the edge went to the home teams, who went 4-0 against the spread (ATS). In the second round, the teams that had a bye all lost, and Arizona State is the only one that covered the spread. 

So where’s the big edge this week?

Whoever gets to 20 first here wins the game. It might only take 17. We’re talking about two quarterbacks who are limited through the air. Riley Leonard threw for 90 yards against Georgia, and Drew Allar doesn’t have a 250-yard passing game all season. 

The offensive strategy will be simple for both — just don’t mess it up. 

When it comes to Notre Dame, the Irish didn’t turn the ball over against Indiana or Georgia. In fact, they did next to nothing offensively against the Bulldogs, scoring a touchdown after Georgia fumbled inside its own 20 late in the first half and then running the second-half kickoff back seconds later to put the game away. 

For Penn State, Allar had a fumble when the Nittany Lions were up 14-0, and that let Boise State stay in the game and hang around longer than it should have.

Besides cautious offenses, I expect both defenses to largely contain both running attacks, and as a result, I’m looking at the first-half Under and full-game Under, too. Because