2023 NFL draft first-round trades: Which teams should move up, down?

The most important element of the NFL draft is picking the right players. The hardest part of the NFL draft is picking the right players. Study after study suggest the ability to pick prospects is overwhelmed by randomness and variance.

Players can struggle to stay healthy. The coach who drafted a player might get fired and replaced by someone who runs a different scheme. College success might not translate to the professional level. Even if a general manager is great at scouting talent, he might get only a couple of drafts before he gets fired. This stuff is hard. GMs can't control how the prospects they pick will pan out, but they do have more control over what they do in terms of moving up, down and around the board during draft weekend.

Let's focus on those decisions and run through each of the 31 picks in the first round of the 2023 draft. I'll identify whether each team can make a stronger argument toward moving up, down or staying put at each selection. Remember, there are only 31 selections because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-rounder for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. Giving away a first-round pick for nothing is a good way to ensure a team doesn't draft well.

To try to figure out what each team should be thinking on draft day, I'll look at how they should be approaching the draft given their current roster construction and expected success in 2023. For teams that have had the same brain trust in place for a number of years, I'll also consider the moves they've made in the past to inform how they typically approach Round 1 trades and whether they prefer moving up or down.

We'll start with a pick that already has been on the move. The Panthers acquired the No. 1 overall pick, and they