2023 NFL draft: A running back in Round 1? Why Bijan Robinson is risky

Simultaneously, Bijan Robinson is both one of the least controversial and most controversial prospects in the 2023 NFL draft. After a sterling career at Texas, just about everybody agrees Robinson is an excellent running back and one of the best players, independent of position, in this class. He ranks No. 9 overall on Mel Kiper's Big Board and is No. 4 in Todd McShay's list of the top 32 prospects.

The controversy comes in because of the position Robinson plays. If this were 40 years ago, he might be a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick. Now, there are questions about whether NFL teams should even consider taking him at any point in the first round. A league that averaged more than four running backs in Round 1 each year in the 1980s and 1990s has used 12 first-round picks on backs in the past 10 drafts. Draft capital used on running backs on the whole has collapsed.

What's with the disconnect? Should teams be skeptical of taking any running back in Round 1? Is Robinson an exception to whatever rules teams might hold about drafting backs as high as he's expected to go in Kansas City, Missouri, later this month?

Let's take a deep dive into the issues facing running backs and how teams scout and value those backs. I'm also going to look into how teams are built and how often premium backs turn into championship winners for the organizations that drafted them. If Robinson is a top-10 talent, should he go in the top 10? Or should teams let him fall to Round 2?

Jump to a section:Problem No. 1: The value of RBsProblem No. 2: The draft is hardProblem No. 3: The opportunity costShould Robinson be a Round 1 pick?

By just about every measure I can find, Robinson should be considered one of the best backs to come out of