2023 NBA Playoffs: Odds of LeBron scoring 40 on Saturday

Dillon Brooks poked the bear. He called LeBron James old, said he doesn't respect him and won't respect him until LeBron scores 40 points on him.

On Friday, Caesars Sportsbook set the line at LeBron scoring 40-plus points for Saturday's Game 3 showdown against the Grizzlies at +650. A compelling prop bet to be sure, but what's the bet to make here?

Let's dig into that.

While Brooks is a habitual line-stepper, this was a very calculated move. Brooks is unapologetically building his image in the Draymond Green mold… which is funny because that includes a public feud with Green himself. But Green and Brooks both try their best to get into their opponents' heads and make them play out of character. And that is exactly what Brooks is trying to do here, to LeBron, no less.

The Lakers this season have had by far their most success when their offense has run through Anthony Davis. In the games Davis has played, he has averaged 27.8 PPG on 17.9 FGA in Lakers wins, but only 23.5 PPG on 16.3 FGA in losses. This is compounded against the Grizzlies, who are thinner in the middle with starting center Steven Adams and top backup Brandon Clarke both out. Davis scored 9 more points on 3 more shots in the Lakers' Game 1 win than he did in their Game 2 loss.

In other words, it is in the Lakers' best interest for Davis to get a lot of touches and shots. So, by definition, that would be in the Grizzlies' worst interests.

Brooks knows this. Thus, he wears sunglasses indoors with his shirt open in the news conference and pokes the bear.

The problem is… the bear knows this, too.

LeBron James is one of the smartest, most experienced players in NBA history. He understands his role on this Lakers team is to lead and facilitate as much as it is to