2022 Triple Crown: Assessing the Kentucky Derby and moving on to the Preakness

Disbelief.

It was the primary reaction when 80-1 shot Rich Strike won the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Two trainer quotes after the race pretty much sum it up:

Steve Asmussen: ”I got beat by the horse that just got in.”

Saffie Joseph, Jr.: “An 80-1 shot winning, unbelievable. Congrats to them.”

RELATED: Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike: A longshot brings joy back to racing

By the usual standards of speed figures and performance in prep races, the result didn’t make a lot of sense. I did, however, point out in my previous article that the usual standards of how we compare horses don’t always apply to the Kentucky Derby:

In what the late, great Harvey Pack would have called a “redboard,” I want to point out some subtle, hidden form factors about Rich Strike. In retrospect, he was clearly in an upward form cycle. The fact that his previous three races were on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park may have hidden this factor. He posted two thirds and a fourth in those races, showing that he had some ability, but by comparison to the others in the field, he deserved to be 80-1. Also, in his previous race on a dirt surface, he was beaten by 14 lengths by Epicenter. That race, however, was on December 26, 2021, and this horse had matured greatly since December. Add in a fast pace that favored closers, a clean trip and a masterful ride, and you have the formula for a huge upset. We’ll see the distance-loving Rich Strike again in the mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes.

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It is highly unlikely that we will have such an upset in the Preakness, which is usually a much more formful race than the Kentucky Derby. The smaller field size and a