Why prediction markets might be skipping the Kentucky Derby - ESPN

Leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have enabled their users to bet on just about everything over the past year — from the outcomes of political races and daily temperatures in U.S. cities to the winners of sporting events.

When it comes to the 2026 Kentucky Derby, though, it appears they are bowing out.

As of Thursday morning, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had listed a market for the winner of Saturday's Derby in Louisville, which is both the most prestigious annual event in its sport and a marquee date on the sports betting calendar. A Kalshi spokesperson declined comment when asked if the company planned to accept trades on the Kentucky Derby. Polymarket briefly opened a market last week then took it down — apparently at Churchill Downs' request.

«We reached out to Polymarket and asked for the wagers to be removed,» Churchill Downs spokesperson Breck Thomas-Ross told ESPN. «And Polymarket complied.»

Polymarket did not respond to multiple requests for comment sent via e-mail.

The prediction markets' caution around horse racing might seem out of place, especially given the brash ways in which they have challenged sports gambling companies, engaged in legal fights with states and continued to offer trades that have raised objections from leagues such as the NFL. But industry experts said there are good reasons why Kalshi and Polymarket might stay away from the sport, including the Interstate Horseracing Act. The 1978 law created a federal regulatory framework for betting on horse races, giving state racing commissions and racetracks significant power over wagering on their events.

«Right now, the law's fairly clear on what [prediction markets] are allowed to do without consent by our sport,» Tom Rooney, the