When will LeBron James pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the NBA's all-time regular-season points leader?

After passing Karl Malone for second on the NBA's all-time scoring list, which could happen as early as Saturday night, when could Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James reach the top by surpassing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar?

Malone retired after the 2003-04 season having played until he was 40, finishing 1,459 points shy of Abdul-Jabbar's record total of 38,387. Abdul-Jabbar, who retired in 1989 after a 20-year career, has been safe atop the scoring leaderboard for more than three decades. Before James, nobody besides Malone got within 4,700 points of Abdul-Jabbar's mark.

Now, James becoming the NBA's all-time leading scorer seems inevitable if he stays healthy. James would pass Abdul-Jabbar in his 20th season if he manages to repeat this year's point total, which has come on his highest scoring average (29.7 PPG) since 2009-10.

Still playing at an All-NBA level, James has said he wants to continue playing beyond the end of his current contract after next season. He could become the first NBA player to score 40,000 points.

When can we expect James to potentially pass Abdul-Jabbar? And is there anyone on the horizon who might eventually threaten the NBA scoring record? Let's take a look at the future of the points leaderboard.

There are two big variables here, one of them obvious and the other perhaps subtler.

The obvious one is health: James missed 27 games in both 2018-19, his first season with the Los Angeles Lakers, and last season. He's missed 18 so far this season. Even if we knew exactly how many points per game James will score going forward, pinpointing how long it might take him to score 1,479 points will depend on how many he plays.

As for determining how prolific James will remain as a scorer, that might depend on the