Week 5 NFL Eliminator picks - Bills, Packers in great spot

Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most entertaining games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.

While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.

Week 5 looks much easier on paper than the past few weeks. Six teams are favored by at least a touchdown after there were a total of nine in the first four weeks combined. That includes the Buffalo Bills laying 14 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is the largest spread so far this season.

However, each of the three biggest favorites have a lot more usable weeks in the future. The Bills still have two games left against the Jets among other options, while the Packers and Buccaneers are by far the two biggest favorites next week. As a result, my top choice for larger groups is Jacksonville, which combines a high chance to win and low future value. For smaller groups which may need to play all 18 weeks, the Bills are the top choice.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Sunday, 1:05 p.m ET, NRG Stadium, Houston

When the season began, I did not expect to be picking Jacksonville in Week 5, but here we are. If you want to fade the chalk (and save the Bills, Packers and Buccaneers for later), Jacksonville is the best option on the board. Houston is the only winless team in the NFL, and they are the only team to rank in the bottom 10 in EPA (expected points added) per play on both offense and defense. The only other week where FPI gives the Jaguars at least a 65% chance