Week 13 college football betting: Look at the 'ugly corners' for the best value - ESPN

Week 13 of the college football season is where the board stops caring about team names and starts revealing the value to anyone disciplined (or brave) enough to look at the ugly corners.

Last week was a clean sweep on the card with numbers and outcomes lining up the way they were supposed to.

This week doesn't come with the shine of ranked matchups or brand-heavy teams, and that's OK. The best edges never show up in the games everyone wants to talk about. Look in the shadows, in the totals and team profiles that the market would rather scroll past. That's where these three plays come from.

Oh boy.

Pick: Pitt team total UNDER 30.5 (-110)

Pitt averages more than 73 plays per game — one of the highest marks in the country — yet manages only 5.5 yards per play, which is outside the top 60 nationally. That is the profile of a volume offense. They need reps, rhythm and time to score. When you need all three on the road against a team that controls pace the way Georgia Tech does, your ceiling shrinks.

Georgia Tech forces opponents into slower fights by running the ball well and winning possession. They are tied fourth in yards per play, and that style prevents Pitt from running its usual script. Take away pace, and a fragile offense shows its limits. Pitt becomes dependent on Mason Heintschel to deliver into tight coverage, and those windows disappear quicker against a defense with real speed.

Pitt can move the ball, but asking them to reach 31 points in a game where possessions fall below their season average and efficiency stays neutral creates a narrow scoring path. Everything in this matchup leans toward one side staying under, and for Pitt, that number is 30.5.

Pick: Cal team total OVER 24.5 (Even)

Cal needs Stanford's