Week 12 betting guide: Picks for Colts-Chiefs, prop plays on Shedeur, Lamar and more - ESPN

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let's dive in to Week 12. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook and subject to change.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

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Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Kansas City Chiefs to cover -3.5 (-105) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bowen: A key matchup in this game to watch? It's the Chiefs' ability to heat up the pocket against Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones has a 52.2 QBR, and his off-target rate jumps to 21.1%. I see the Chiefs — who have a top-10 blitz rate — dictating the flow of this game from a defensive perspective. Take them to cover the 3.5 points at Arrowhead.

Colts team total OVER 23.5 (-115)

Solak: Maybe I'm getting trapped by this line, but I'm happy to fall into the pit. The Colts are averaging a whopping 3.17 points per drive on the season, yet have a total of only 23.5 total points against a respectable, but unspectacular Kansas City Chiefs defense. Kansas City is