USMNT World Cup bracket scenarios, odds to advance, predicted path to knockouts - ESPN

After back-to-back wins for the U.S. men's national team to start the 2026 World Cup — the first time it has won two straight World Cup games since 1930 — the knockout rounds await.

But even though the U.S. has qualified for the round of 32, much remains to be decided, and the USMNT's possible matchups could range from lopsided to too close for comfort. From there, it only gets tougher: In the modern World Cup, the U.S. has only made it past the round of 16 once, and that was 24 years ago.

That's why ESPN will be bringing you regularly updated permutations, odds and projections that will follow the likely U.S. path through the World Cup — including what teams the Americans could end up facing. Stick around and bookmark this page for the latest.

Now that the U.S. has qualified for the knockout rounds by following up its 4-1 win over Paraguay with a 2-0 victory against Australia, the team's attention will now turn to Türkiye's match with Paraguay later on Friday.

If Paraguay win or draw, the U.S. will clinch first place in the group. If Paraguay lose, the U.S. could finish anywhere from first to third, though first or second would remain far more likely.

The expansion of the tournament from 32 to 48 total teams — and the resulting creation of the round of 32 — makes the USMNT's potential path through the World Cup much more challenging to project. The key complication: Not only are all 12 group winners and 12 second-place teams advancing to the knockout rounds, but also the eight best third-place teams. There are 495 different combinations of how third-placed teams could be seeded in the bracket, so chaos will be the story of the final group games as teams battle to keep their World Cup dreams alive.

The third-place teams