UFC Fight Night: Experts' picks and best bets for Lewis-Nascimento - ESPN

Derrick Lewis, a favorite among many MMA fans, makes his first Octagon appearance of 2024 as he takes on fellow heavyweight contender Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday in St. Louis (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).

Lewis has lost four of his past five fights, including a unanimous decision loss to Jailton Almeida in his most recent bout last November. Nascimento enters this bout riding a three-fight winning streak, each of those wins coming by decision. Neither fighter holds a spot in ESPN's divisional rankings.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Lewis wins: Lewis should aim to start fast and keep Nascimento on his back foot to prevent him from getting comfortable. Lewis needs to limit his kicks and rely on his boxing skills to avoid creating easy takedown opportunities for Nascimento. He should incorporate his rear uppercut to counter Nascimento's level changes and use his frames to give himself space and keep Nascimento off his chest when he looks to body-lock. Lewis also needs to avoid resting with his back against the cage.

How Nascimento wins: Nascimento's movement and feints will be crucial against a power puncher like Lewis, particularly to set up his level changes. He should have an advantage in clinch positions, where he can employ his dirty boxing to set up his Greco wrestling or trips against the cage. His style of wrestling could prove effective against a larger opponent like