UFC Fight Night expert picks and best bets - Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green

A highly impactful contest between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green will headline Saturday's UFC Fight Night at the Apex in Las Vegas (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET; prelims at 4 p.m. ET).

The main event was originally supposed to feature Makhachev (21-1) against Beneil Dariush (21-4-1) in a likely No. 1 contender's bout for the next shot at the UFC lightweight championship, but Dariush was forced to withdraw last week because of a broken fibula. Green (29-12-1) agreed to step in on short notice in a 160-pound catchweight fight.

Makhachev, a teammate and protege of retired undefeated champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, is ESPN's No. 5-ranked lightweight. Green is not ranked but is coming off an impressive win against Nasrat Haqparast two weeks ago and would make a huge jump in the division with a victory over Makhachev.

Does Green have what it takes to pull off the upset? Or will Makhachev handle the late opponent change and continue his rise to the top of the division? Veteran MMA coaches John Wood of Syndicate MMA, Sayif Saud of Fortis MMA and Eric Nicksick of Xtreme Couture MMA break down the matchup for Brett Okamoto and Marc Raimondi from an inside-the-cage perspective, while experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn analyze the card from a betting viewpoint.

How Makhachev wins: He's one of the better grapplers in the sport right now, at any weight. And he's filling that void that Khabib left behind when he retired. His level of competition so far is actually higher than what Khabib fought at the same point of his career. Islam has been thrown into the fire pretty early, and he's made it look easy. His grappling is incredibly high level, and as far as his striking, the thing is, when you have such good grappling it can open up opportunities for